Emerson College polling shows Trump leading Biden by 12 points in the state of Ohio. However, the same poll shows every declared 2024 Republican Ohio U.S. Senate candidate is losing to Democrat incumbent U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown. Republicans struggle to win Ohio when Trump is not on the ballot. No Republican presidential candidate has won the White House without Ohio.

Polling from Ohio shows Trump leading Biden 50% to 38% and leading the GOP primary by 52 points. What is fascinating is the same poll shows all declared Ohio Republican Senate candidates losing to Sherrod Brown. Brown is beating Matt Dolan by 3 points, Frank LaRose by 5 points, and Bernie Moreno by 10 points. All three Republican Ohio Senate candidates have strong name recognition in the state, with LaRose being Ohio’s Secretary of State, Dolan’s family owning Cleveland Indians (now known as the Guardians), and Bernie Moreno running in the 2022 Ohio U.S. Senate race.

Republicans have struggled to win elections in Ohio when Trump is not on the ballot. Obama beat McCain by 5 points in the Buckeye State in 2008. Obama beat Romney by 3 points in Ohio in 2012. In 2018, Democrat U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown won reelection by 7 points. In 2023, Issue 1, a ballot issue Ohio Republicans campaigned against, passed by 57-43%. This shows Ohio voters want MAGA policies and not Paul Ryan’s Republicanism.

Trump’s America First policies, especially his tariffs, won over Ohio’s voters, notably in the North Eastern part of the state, an area that is home to most of Ohio’s Rust Belt. In 2020, Trump became the first Republican Presidential candidate to win Mahoning County, Ohio. This county is the home of Youngstown, Ohio, which many consider to be ground zero of America’s Rust Belt. Trump’s Eastern Ohio flip turned the Buckeye State from a swing state that leans Democrat to a reliable Red State with Trump on the ballot.

Loomer reported that Ron DeSantis informed his elite Silicon Valley donors last August that he would not impose Trump-like tariffs on China if elected POTUS. Nikki Haley was just endorsed by the Koch network’s Americans for Prosperity Super Pac. The Koch network vehemently fought Trump on his tariff policies.

The math makes it undeniable that Donald Trump is the only presidential candidate who can win Ohio. No Republican has won the White House without winning the Buckeye State. Trump is the Republicans’ only hope of winning the White House in 2024.

Charles Downs